Land Use in Vermont

Motivation:

                I am a senior at the University of Vermont studying environmental studies with a concentration in ecology and conservation.  I am taking the course Ecosystems Ecology and completing an independent study project as my senior capstone focusing on ecology and environment. The purpose of this experience, as the final step of my education, is to expose me to issues and skills required in the environmental field. I am incredibly passionate about conservation and I am interested in applying my GIS expertise in a project on this topic.

Project Concept:

                My project will look at the impacts of conservation on carbon storage. I intend to look at changes in land use and land cover over the last ~30 years.  I propose focusing on the Vermont Land Trust and its influence on Vermont’s landscape. The following work schedule and results will follow:

1.       Collect land cover and land use change and GIS data from VLT, VT state agencies and other sources. Download the 30 meter resolution aboveground carbon map from the Woods Hole Research Center for later use in the carbon estimates.

2.       I will use the modeling platform Dinamica to simulate historical land use change across Vermont. I can then run the model with and without the Vermont Land Trust to see how conversation has influenced changes in land cover and land use. 

3.       I will use a simple carbon model to estimate carbon storage on VLT areas. I will also estimate carbon storage using the historical simulation of land use in the absence of the VLT. The difference in these estimates is the additional carbon stored due to conservation. This can be modeled for each county and turned into a cartographically pleasing display. A large percentage of the population will be able to easily interpret the data in this format.

                The next step is to meet with Vermont Land Trust in order to assess their needs and receive feedback on this proposal. It will be important to determine the quality of data and what can be achieved using it. Any questions can be answered, such as: Is the project interesting? , How can it be changed? , What land use changes are most important or significant?

               

BoundaryCounty_CNTYBNDS	Statewide	Polygon	VT State Plane Meters NAD83	VCGI	Basic outline of counties
LandLandcov_LCLU	Statewide	Raster	NAD83	VCGI	Breakdown of land use in VT
ImageryPhotos_NAIP	Statewide	Raster	NAD83	VCGI
National Biomass and Carbon Dataset	Country (state)	30 m Raster	Albers conic equal area NAD83	Woods Hole	Use for carbon estimates
TransRoad_RDSMAJ1	State	1500	NAD83	VTRANS	Vermont Roads by class

To Do

·         Get layers downloaded and organized in a folder.

·         Download ArcGIS and Arc Catalog (may need a code)

·         Find papers on land use or some way to justify a formula.

·         Also find and summarize model, provide justification.

·         Flowchart of the model and how it may function.

·         Identify missing layers and challenging components.

·         Check in with Gillian

Hybrid analytic-heuristic

                I think I should probably use 3-4 potential land-use categories: residential, commercial, industrial, other? Some variables (or primary drivers of land use conversion) to consider are: Distance to roads, proximity to existing land use (urban, residiential, commercial), proximity to other protected areas, private vs. public land, proximity to population centers, finally biophysical components ( soil, slope, vegetation, etc.). “From 1970 to 1980, there was a 35.2% increase in the number of housing units, but the population grew only by 15%. Likewise, from 1980 to 1990, there was a 21.5% increase in the number of housing units, while the population increased by only 10% (U.S. Bureau of the Census).” http://www.uvm.edu/rsenr/sal/lumodel/stateof.html

                First use WofE method, then put the results into the GA tool. Set the WofE coefficient to zero for variables that are spatially dependent (I don’t really understand why).  Spatially dependent variables are things like soils and vegetation. In the example they set crossover to 0.7 and mutation to 0.01. Population size to 100. Generations to 30. Activated convergence stopping criterion, defined by convergence limit of 0.99 (page 11, https://webmail.uvm.edu/imp/view.php?ajaxui=1&actionID=view_attach&id=2&uid=10933&mailbox=SU5CT1g&uniq=1361378219394) I believe I should take the output from the GA tool and put it into a two way similarity test. From there I could even predict how land use may change down the road. This would utilize an almost identical model. Finally I will have to calculate the amount of carbon sequestered (above and/or below ground) by VLT. I am unsure of how to accomplish this last step.

LAND USE

                In Chittenden County the years 1971 to 1990 experienced more growth in Vermont than from 1950 to 1970 or 1991 to 2010. From 1990 to 2008 the majority of residential development was on large lots in rural areas. In 1970 there were just over 20,000 structures in Chittenden County, by 1990 there were over 35,000 and in 2005 there were over 44,000 structures. Roughly a third of the county’s growth from 1950 until 2005 was in suburban areas. By 2005 24 % of the county’s structures were in suburban areas. There was an increase in structures in all sectors of Chittenden County. There was a greater increase of structures in rural areas than transportation areas. “In 1950, over 55% of structures in Chittenden County were located in the Metro Planning Area (mostly in Burlington and Winooski). By 2005, that percentage had fallen to about 35%. In the same time period, the

percentage of county structures located in the Rural Planning Area grew from about 18% to almost 29%, and the percentage in the Suburban Planning Area grew from a little over 7% to almost 24%.”

http://ecosproject.com/sites/default/files/documents/Historic%20Development%20and%20Future%20Land%20Use%20Transportation%20Analysis%20Draft%202.pdf

QUESTIONS

1.       Can the patcher function be set up to capture the average size of a timber cut in VT? Is this the best way to use the patcher functor, or what I should be interested in>

2.       How many variables should I use and what are the most important?

3.       Is the Hybrid-Analytic Heuristic model or Cellular Automata model a better fit? Is the GA tool necessary?

4.       What parts of the Wood Hole layer do I need? When I tried to download the file there was a lot of stuff and no good descriptions or metadata.

Jekyll Island

                Over break I went to Georgia for a Frisbee tournament. We had Monday off so we headed to Jekyll Island. This beautiful and ecologically astounding island is just off the coast of Georgia. Parts of it are developed while other areas are kept relatively free of human use. We ventured into a beautiful beach that was bordered by forest. The erosive forces of salt water and wind have left unique driftwood formations. All along the beach are dead upright trees worn smooth by the weather; they still have their roots buried in the sand and give the beach an eerie look. The forest is slowly being lost to the beach, each year more of the trees succumb. As we entered the forest the winds died away and an entirely new community surrounded us. There were a variety of southern pines including: Pitch pine, longleaf pine and slash pine. Beneath the pines the understory is dominated by saw-palmettos, which is a native species. They thrive underneath the pines and crowd out almost all other species. Some palmettos are estimated to be between 500-700 years old. As one moves further into the forest there is an increasing number of live oak trees. These oaks do not have the characteristic leaf of northern oaks. Instead they have an elongated oval leaf that remains green all year long. One of the most stunning parts of the live oaks is the Spanish moss draped over every branch. It gives the forest an old and wise look. The bird diversity is noticeably greater in the oak forest as compared to the pines. Based on the enormous number of bug bites I got I assume the birds have plenty to eat.